Often technology “moguls” offer a vision of the future based on technology trends that can seem implausible or even disconnected from any sense of reality. As much time as I spend thinking about the Internet and information and communications technologies, I sometimes hesitate myself to prognosticate on what some of the key trends are and where technology may be headed. That said, it is the end of the year and time to think about the new year coming up. So herewith are some of the technology trends are I think are emerging and likely to be influential.
One trend is simply connectivity. There are projections suggesting that much of the whole world – almost 5 billion people – will be connected via data networks and more will be connected by cell phones within the next decade. What are the implications of this global connectivity? Many ideas come to mind but one that is not always thought of is the impact this many people, connected in so many ways might have on rapid nature of change in society. The old saw “Two heads (read billions of heads) are better than one” comes to mind. There is research suggesting that where people are concentrated and connected and are able to share information actively and frequently, innovation tends to be more robust. Cities of course are where this is most likely to be the case. But connecting more and more people across the globe can act in the same way. So, I think the connectivity trend is worth highlighting because it may well be a bell weather of further rapid change. Growth in the developing nations is now among the fastest anywhere globally. Some of that is because these nations start from a very low base but mobile communications is changing lives and economies in these countries and helping them become more integrated in the global economy.
Second, consumers today simply have more electronic devices of all kinds in their homes and these devices – unlike the case just a couple of decades ago – are all digital, many can communicate with each other and share data, and many have lots of memory, processing power and customizable interfaces. Today, some estimates are that many homes have upwards of 30 digital devices and these are just the communications devices in the home. These figures do not include devices like dishwashers that are also becoming intelligent and in some cases networked too. In fact, devices like dishwashers will communicate more and more in the future as machine to machine connections multiply. Because all of these devices communicate or can exchange data in many cases, consumer demand for bandwidth is growing. Consumers can create more information of all kinds from video to audio to written content. Information can take many forms and people can communicate in many ways due in part to the many devices they have to interact with the data and entertainment that is on the Internet and the cloud today.
Third is the evolution of cheap sensor technologies of all kinds. I mentioned machine to machine communications but sensors are keys to making machine to machine applications work and making them valuable in the lives of consumers and businesses. Sensors are already installed in cars (some 30 computer devices including sensors are in cars today) sending back valuable information to other devices in the car and even sending data back to repair and emergency centers. Sensors can detect anomalies, report on the status of devices, record information about how a device is working, keep track of inventory and the like. When connected together with smart networks and servers to analyze data and assess information, imagine what can be accomplished. Some have talked about the refrigerator with the Internet panel on the outside that will tell you when milk needs to be replaced. But think about sensors in a home electrical system that can detect shorts or potentially fatal electrical faults that could catch a home on fire if not corrected. Or a dishwasher with sensors that can report on when a water line is getting weak and might spring a leak. Sensors combined with networks combined with servers and monitoring computers can help improve lives, save lives, and help us manage our home energy use better just to name a few things. Machine to machine communications is at the heart of all of this and clearly the traffic on machine to machine systems will soon dwarf what is occurring today on social networks.
Fourth, connected mobility has to be among the most important of the ongoing trends. Certainly increased speeds are an important part of the trends but also important are improvements in battery power, in charging systems, and in the computing power of the devices themselves. All of these together suggest an era of continuous connectivity and the ability to conduct most of one’s life on a mobile device. Mobility means too that cloud services may become even more important. Translation services for example that are now available can be accessed wherever you are via your mobile device but the processing power needed for real time two-way translation requires access to cloud based services. Mobile devices can be customized and personalized and will likely contain many of the essentials people need to live in the modern world including addresses and phone numbers of friends. Mobile phones are a natural means of accessing financial information and conducting daily transactions so the idea of mobile phones as credit cards, smart card devices for toll roads and the like is far from unreal. And think of what can be done to address chronic diseases due to the capability of mobile devices. Even today, simple experiments with text messages from doctors reminding patients to take their medicines has shown greatly improved rates of patient compliance with treatment regimens. Not only can mobile devices be used to help improve patient-doctor communications, they can also be used to monitor medical signs more regularly which can help greatly improve health outcomes.
Finally, the ways we interact with devices is changing dramatically, making it possible for more people to use communications and information technology and improving the way we communicate, making it more natural, fulfilling and interactive. The Kinect device Microsoft just introduced is a great example of what this means. It is the first motion detection system that can detect all human movements without the need for any hand held device. It can follow movements naturally by measuring dozens of spots on a person. It can also recognize faces to help ensure more security and make it easier to access personalized services and it has good voice recognition capability so it can recognize voice input, motion input and data directly from a person’s face. Touch screen technologies have clearly advanced as well so the range of input systems is advancing daily. Verizon sells a number of smart phones which provide tremendous interactivity through touch screens, including the many Droid devices. This increases the ability to interact, improves the way games work, and provides numerous ways to communicate with others via voice, video and text. Those who are not good at typing or have a disability, for example, will be able to find other ways to communicate. And all of this connectivity and interactive capability drives demand for more broadband. Just think how far we have come in just a few short years when only the mouse and the keyboard were used to communicate with computers.
All of these trends say one thing to me – computer devices of all kinds will continue to make our lives safer, provide more customized and individualized solutions to the challenges of daily life, and will be more widely available in more ways than ever before. Of course, the promises of these technologies can create policy challenges but I prefer to think that these many technology trends hold the potential for more and better lives for us all.